As the NFL season unfolds, the New Orleans Saints find themselves at a crossroads, facing a pivotal question: Will they continue their recent trend of missing the playoffs, or will their offense come alive and drive them to a division title and beyond?
Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with the NFL Network, casts a skeptical eye on the Saints' prospects for the 2024 season, predicting a third-place finish in the NFC South. Frelund’s projection is based on a sophisticated model that runs 150,000 simulations of the season’s games, factoring in historical data and team statistics. Her forecast of 7.4 wins for the Saints is sobering for fans hoping for a turnaround year.
Despite these predictions, there is reason for cautious optimism. Quarterback Derek Carr, now in his second year with the Saints, is expressing confidence in his comfort level with the team’s evolving offense, now under the direction of Klint Kubiak. Carr, who was a high-profile acquisition last year, believes the team has made significant strides since his debut season. “We’re so far ahead of where we were last year, just as a team, just as a group of guys,” Carr shared with reporters, highlighting improved team cohesion and familiarity with the system.
Frelund’s simulations, however, point to a challenging path ahead. Her model, which accounts for various contextualized data points correlated with historical outcomes, predicts that the Saints will struggle in a highly competitive NFC South. According to her analysis, New Orleans is projected to finish behind both the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and their overall win total is expected to fall under 7.5.
The Saints’ odds reflect this uphill battle. Betting lines set their win total at under 7.5, with odds of +100, and their chances to make the playoffs at +190. Their odds to win the division are +350, while winning the conference and the Super Bowl are even longer shots at +4000 and +8000, respectively.
One of the key challenges facing the Saints will be their defense, which has struggled in recent years. They finished in the bottom five in sacks and pressures, according to Pro Football Reference, and will need significant improvements to compete against high-powered offenses in the NFC.
Moreover, the Saints' schedule adds to their daunting task. Following a Week 1 divisional game against the Carolina Panthers, they face a tough four-game stretch including three road games against formidable opponents like the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, and Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
Adding a twist to their season, the Saints' new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, comes with a notable lineage and experience, having previously served as the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers and held roles with the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings. His father, Gary Kubiak, is a Super Bowl-winning coach, further raising expectations for what he might bring to New Orleans’ offense.
While the Saints are forecasted to struggle, the projections for the top NFC teams paint a different picture. Frelund ranks the San Francisco 49ers as the top team with 11.2 wins, closely followed by the Philadelphia Eagles at 11.1. The Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons also feature prominently in her projections, signaling stiff competition for any team in the conference.
As the Saints embark on the 2024 season, the dual narratives of analytics and on-field optimism set the stage for a dramatic unfolding. Whether they defy expectations or conform to Frelund’s cold projections, one thing is certain: Saints fans are in for an intriguing season as they watch their team strive to overcome the odds and reassert themselves in the NFC South.
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